Sympathy for the Devil

BYE-BYE HUMANITY!

I once took the position that one could easily distinguish the natural from the social sciences based upon the criteria of pre-existence and predictability. Now I’m not so sure.

Pre-existence is simple: If it was here, on earth, or in the universe, before we (humans) were, then it pre-existed and belongs in the realm of the natural sciences—physics chemistry & biology. The stars, planets, supernovae, rocks & minerals, ecosystems without human influence.

Period. Simple enough. Conversely, if it was created by the human brain, conjured, confabulated by our endless ability to parse items and ideas—to bullshit ourselves and each other—then it belongs to the social sciences: psychology, sociology, economics etc.

Now let’s look at predictability —
IF the physical system is one in which only one or a small number of variables are of interest, natural science predictability works well. For example, predicting the flight path of a ball, thrown with initial velocity, v at an angle, theta is a straightforward physics problem. Mixing together a bunch of chemicals in a reacting soup and predicting the final composition of that soup after the chemical reactions have occurred is another example. Drop sodium metal in water, and you’re going to end up with an explosion releasing lots of heat and generating sodium hydroxide. A no–brainer; works every time. Drop a freshly picked lime and a grapefruit into a fish tank of water, the lime’s going to sink, the grapefruit will float. Density; physics 101. It even works for biology, if you keep it simple. Inject measured shot of adrenaline (epinephrine) into mouse’s bloodstream, and it’s heart going to pump faster and harder, its blood pressure will rise. In the social sciences, you’ve got no such predictive power. Give a particular person a psychological suggestion about how to behave, and you’d be damned if you could predict the outcome with any accuracy. Change the composition of a social network by adding a married couple to the mix, and what happens —damned if anyone can predict that outcome ofsociology with any accuracy. And economics. HA! Tell me precisely what the stock market’s going to do, tomorrow. Ridiculous, right?!

But these distinctions only go so far. Because as the physical systems studied by the natural science grow in complexity, in the number of variables that must be considered, their behavior becomes stochastic — random and unpredictable. Hurricanes, or any other climate phenomena; medical prognosis after a person is diagnosed with type-II diabetes. Sure you can predict probabilities – because you can collect statistics. Bur for a single person, to accurately predict outcome is almost impossible. Complex systems defy that ability.

So, there you have it. Does anyone care? I do because I think human hubris doesn’t “get it,” which is why we just keep in going on our path to self-extinction and planetary change. We’re going to leave behind an altered planet, lacking us and likely many other top predator species, but which will survive and re-evolve something, perhaps even another form of communicating, highly rational being in million years or so. Damned predictive certainty that some [many] types of bacteria will come through, some types of arthropods [ants, beetles, etc.] and a variety of green plants & fungi. But NOT US! That’s it —goodbye humans. You blew it, you stupid moronic cretinous fuckers.

15 Responses to “PREDICTABILITY IN COMPLEX SYSTEMS: NATURAL VS. SOCIAL SCIENCES”

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